5 key House seats Republicans are likely to flip
While the Republicans’ majority is increasingly narrow, there are currently five competitive blue seats that may help the GOP hold onto the House.
The seats of Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Jared Golden of Maine have all been ranked as toss-ups by Cook Political Report.
Alongside these toss-up ratings, polling also suggests these seats are within Republicans’ reach going into November.
In 2022, Peltola is the first Democratic candidate to have been elected to Alaska’s sole congressional seat in more than half a century after the state adopted a ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates rather than a typical two-party primary system. As a result, Republican candidates Nick Begich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin split the GOP vote, allowing Peltola to flip the seat blue for the first time since 1970.
Despite the ranked-choice system, Peltola is facing a challenge from just one Republican candidate, Nick Begich, after Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out to consolidate the GOP vote. Combined with Alaska’s reliably red voting history, recent polls from the National Republican Congressional Committee put Peltola at an electoral disadvantage.
Peltola is also featured on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “frontline members” list consisting of the most competitive blue seats.
Peltola’s fellow frontliner, Caraveo, is also at risk of losing re-election to her Republican challenger. While one September poll puts the Colorado Democrat at a narrow three-point edge, a recent poll from early October puts her in a dead heat with Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Colorado’s 8th Congressional District is also perfectly split between Republicans and Democrats, according to Cook Political Report.
Caraveo won her seat in 2022 against Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer by less than 1%.
Since Slotkin opted to run for Senate, Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel and Republican challenger Tom Barrett have gone head to head for the seat. Slotkin flipped the longtime red seat blue in 2022, making the +2 Republican district a potential layup. Polling is also trending in Republicans’ favor, with Barrett ahead of Hertel by four to six points.
Slotkin secured her seat in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District in 2022 by 5.4%.
Perez, who is also featured on the DCCC’s list of vulnerable front-liners, is set to face off against Republican candidate Joe Kent for the second time. Although Perez managed to flip the seat in 2022, she is currently polling dead even against Kent in the +5 Republican district, which may reinstate a red streak in Washington’s third congressional district.
Perez, who has refrained from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, defeated Kent in 2022 by less than 1% after former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler retired.
Golden, who has served Maine’s congressional district for three consecutive terms, is also facing a tight race against Republican candidate Austin Theriault. Despite being a +6 Republican district, Golden won his seat by a 1% margin in 2018 and just over 6% in 2020 and 2022.
Despite his historical electoral advantage, a recent poll shows Golden at a three-point deficit against Theriault.
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