‘Past is prologue’: Why Trump’s rise in the polls spell a ‘last-minute collapse’ for Kamala
There are only two weeks left until Election Day 2024, and if there’s any truth to the latest polling trends, things are looking good for Donald Trump.
While Stu Burguiere of “Stu Does America” is “always resistant to good news,” the polls he’s seeing seem to spell a “last-minute collapse” for the vice president.
“To remind you, on polling averages, there’s a little bit of secret sauce in every polling average. It’s no polling average is pure, if you will. The closest thing you can come to pure would be RealClearPolitics,” Stu says before analyzing a Washington Post poll, which he admits does have “secret sauce.”
The Washington Post poll has Kamala Harris up by very little in key battleground states, which Stu says reflects a “very close election.”
The New York Times has reported a “slight Trump shift” but “no real favorite” in the presidential race.
“If the polls missed like they did in 2022, as I mentioned, they underestimated Democratic support. Harris would sweep all of these states with the exception of Georgia and run away with the election win with over 300 electoral votes,” Stu says.
“If the polls missed like they did in 2020, Donald Trump would dominate a lot of these polls in states, and would win all of these swing states and win with over 300 electoral votes,” he adds.
Stu calls this “very uncertain territory” and says that “at the end of the day, you have a very close election and you don’t know what is going to happen.”
However, Stu is optimistic.
“You have to understand that this is the best chance Donald Trump has ever had to win an election. Now, he won in 2016, but he was a major underdog in 2016. In 2020, he was an even bigger underdog,” Stu says.
“In 2024, it’s basically an even race. And if the past is prologue, if past performance is indicative of future results, in this particular instance, you’ve got a lot of room to sit here and be optimistic,” he adds.
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