NYT analyst warns Trump vote may be  undercounted in polls again

New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn warned that nonresponse bias may lead to an underrepresentation of support for former President Donald Trump in current polls.

In a Sunday morning article, Cohn explained that in 2020, Trump’s supporters were considerably less likely to respond to polls than President Joe Biden’s supporters.

While accurately measuring nonresponse bias presents challenges, Cohn noted that he estimates it by considering the survey response rates of Democrats versus Republicans.

“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over,” Cohn wrote.

‘The polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers.’

He concluded that the nonresponse bias may indicate that Trump’s supporters are underrepresented in the polls.

“It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” Cohn remarked.

In a Friday article titled, “So, Can We Trust the Polls?” Cohn acknowledged that the polls in 2016 and 2020 significantly underestimated Trump.

He argued there are a couple of reasons to “be cautiously optimistic” that pollsters will “avoid badly underestimating” the former president once again, with the end of COVID-19 being one of those factors.

Cohn also stated that some pollsters have implemented “major methodological changes” following the inaccurate predictions of previous presidential elections, calling 2016 and 2020 “traumatic” for pollsters.

“Many pollsters have made these changes in hopes of better representing Mr. Trump’s supporters, on the (quite possibly correct) assumption that traditional polling simply can’t reach his MAGA base,” Cohn explained. “But if that assumption turns out to be wrong, it’s possible that pollsters could overcompensate.”

He concluded that pollsters may “underestimate” Vice President Kamala Harris because they are “so concerned — understandably — about underestimating Mr. Trump.”

The latest New York Times/Siena Poll has Harris narrowly leading in several battleground states, including Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Trump is leading in Arizona, the poll shows. Trump and Harris are reportedly neck and neck in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

During a Sunday rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, Trump told his supporters that the polls are “fake.”

“The polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there,” he said, pointing to the press. “They can make those polls sing.”

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