Crucial demographics may hold the key to a Trump victory as race tightens
Key voting blocs that have voted reliably blue are underperforming compared to previous election cycles, which could send warning signs to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. At the same time, increased turnout from some reliably red demographics could give former President Donald Trump the edge he needs.
One of the most glaring disadvantages for Democrats going into the election is the comparatively low turnout from urban voters. At this point in the race, there is a 12.8-point deficit in urban voter turnout across battlegrounds compared to 2020. Rural voter turnout is comparatively higher, with just a 3.9-point difference.
This could be particularly harmful for Democrats this election cycle, given that the majority of urban voters are Democratic and a majority of rural voters are Republican.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
“Regardless of how we slice and dice the demographics, rural voters are going to be very supportive of the former president,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told Blaze News. “Urban voters won’t vote in lockstep, but they will be disproportionately in support of Kamala Harris, so that demographic turnout is going to matter.”
There is also a partisan divide between male and female voters, as men tend to lean more Republican while women lean more Democratic. Although women vote in greater numbers than men do, they are underperforming this election cycle, which could throw a wrench into Harris’ chances.
“It’s not just a ‘get out the vote rally.’ It’s a ‘you’ve got to vote because of X, Y, and Z,” McHenry told Blaze News. “There’s definitely a bit more urgency than what we would normally see from Democrats at this stage of the race.”
Women voters dipped down by 7.9 points across swing states compared to 2020, while men dipped down by seven points. Even though more women have voted than men, their deficit combined with slipping male support could put Harris’ campaign in jeopardy.
Declines in black and Hispanic votes could also put Harris in trouble. Compared to 2020, there is a 10.1-point turnout deficit among black voters in battlegrounds and an 11.7-point decline among Latino voters. Given that both Hispanic and black voters have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats in the past, this decline could threaten Harris’ campaign.
Harris has certainly taken notice of this trend. Over the past month, her campaign has released a tailored “opportunity agenda” for both black and Hispanic men.
“The idea that there’s this sort of opportunity agenda targeted at specific demographics, and the fact that Kamala Harris has drafted Barack Obama to turn out black males and essentially extending her reach to get people to turn out, shows that they’re definitely concerned about getting the traditional Democratic base out to the polls,” McHenry told Blaze News.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
“Like most poker players would say, just give me one of the hands, and I’ll beat you with that,” McHenry told Blaze News. “Honestly, it really is so close that it’s hard to say.”
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